N\u0103m 2025, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c sau nh\u1eefng c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2023\u20132024. VN-Index \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng r\u01a1i xu\u1ed1ng v\u00f9ng 950 \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0ng sau \u0111\u1ea5y h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c m\u1ea1nh kh\u1ecfe, v\u1edbi l\u00fac v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ed1c m\u1ed9t.300 \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1edd r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh t\u00edch c\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 x\u00e2y \u0111\u1eafp ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n quay quay v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1ed1n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n
Thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn, dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh m\u1ee9c 15.000\u201320.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng\/phi\u00ean, cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 nh\u1eadp cu\u1ed9c quay v\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ee9 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c. Kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i s\u1edf h\u1eefu xu th\u1ebf s\u1eafm r\u00f2ng quay v\u1ec1 trong r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i th\u00e1ng v\u1eeba qua, kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng.<\/p>\n
2. h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ee9 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 m\u1edf \u0111\u1ea7u<\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn ti\u1ec7n l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u201cmua th\u1ea5p, b\u00e1n cao\u201d. chi\u1ebfm h\u1eefu nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ebf h\u1ec7, \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c, qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb \u0111en \u0111\u1ee7i v\u00e0 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 b\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0103n b\u1ea3n:<\/p>\n
M\u1edf t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ty uy t\u00edn nh\u01b0 SSI, VNDIRECT, MBS, TCBS,…<\/p>\n
Hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu: bluechip (VCB, HPG), midcap (VND, DGC), penny (HAG, HNG),… M\u1ed7i ph\u1ee5 ki\u1ec7n s\u1edf h\u1eefu \u0111en \u0111\u1ee7i v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9.<\/p>\n
\u0110\u1ecdc l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh: N\u1eafm v\u1eefng l\u00fd l\u1ebd ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ti\u1ec1n, ROE, EPS gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eadt c\u1ee7a si\u00eau th\u1ecb.<\/p>\n
Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro: ko th\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ee9c “all-in”, lu\u00f4n s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ee9c c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n x\u1ebb v\u1ed1n h\u1ee3p l\u00fd: 40% c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, 30% ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, 30% c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n
ko ch\u1ea1y theo \u201croom ph\u00edm h\u00e0ng\u201d tr\u00ean m\u1ea1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i n\u1ebfu ko hi\u1ec3u c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea5y khi\u1ebfn cho \u0103n ra sao.<\/p>\n
3. xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/p>\n
a. Ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng<\/p>\n
N\u0103m 2025 ghi nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, khi gi\u00fap s\u1ee9c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng kh\u1edfi s\u1eafc, n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, v\u00e0 bi\u00ean l\u00e3i thu\u1ea7n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n. m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m t\u00ean n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt: VCB, ACB, VIB, BID, STB \u2013 \u0111\u1ec1u mang b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m c\u1ef1c k\u00ec t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, mang l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ea1o ra 10\u201320% so c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n
b. Ng\u00e0nh th\u00e9p v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/p>\n
HPG, NKG, HSG \u0111ang h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nh\u1edd gi\u00e1 th\u00e9p ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1ed1n c\u00f4ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u. Ng\u00e0nh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p (nh\u01b0 BCM, KBC) c\u0169ng n\u1ed5i l\u00ean khi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng v\u1ed1n FDI li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o Vi\u1ec7t Nam, kh\u00e1c nhau sau c\u00e1c c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n
c. Ng\u00e0nh k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/p>\n
FPT v\u1eabn gi\u1eef v\u1eefng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf l\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng nh\u1edd m\u1ea3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i s\u1ed1. MWG, FRT \u0111ang c\u00f3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c nh\u1eb9 sau qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u, tuy nhi\u00ean \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111au kh\u1ed5 v\u1eabn ph\u1ec7.<\/p>\n
4. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 1 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u<\/p>\n
a. HPG \u2013 T\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n H\u00f2a Ph\u00e1t<\/p>\n
c\u00f3 vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng th\u00e9p ph\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t Vi\u1ec7t Nam, HPG \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o c\u00f4ng \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c chu k\u1ef3. Qu\u00fd II\/2025, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn r\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea1t h\u01a1n 2.600 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh so mang m\u1ee9c r\u1ebb c\u1ed9ng k\u1ef3 2023. D\u1ef1 \u00e1n Dung Qu\u1ea5t 2 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, s\u1edf h\u1eefu th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap HPG ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n trong khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n
b. VCB \u2013 Vietcombank<\/p>\n
VCB ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 mua s\u1eafm. ROE \u1edf m\u1ee9c 20%, t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u d\u01b0\u1edbi 1%, v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n l\u0129nh m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cao h\u01a1n so s\u1edf h\u1eefu c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng qu\u1ed1c doanh kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 r\u1ebb, t\u00e1n th\u00e0nh cho c\u1ea3 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ee9 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n
c. MWG \u2013 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u1ebf y\u00eau<\/p>\n
Sau l\u00fac g\u1eb7p m\u1eb7t bu\u1ed3n b\u00e3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i 2022 \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u 2025, MWG \u0111ang s\u1edf h\u1eefu d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1i nh\u1edd c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh, tinh g\u1ecdn h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u1ea3ng d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f2n chung th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh s\u1ee9c t\u1eadu suy y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n
d. BCM \u2013 Becamex IDC<\/p>\n
L\u00e0 \u00f4ng m\u1eadp trong ng\u00e0nh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, BCM chi\u1ebfm h\u1eefu qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea5t v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i t\u1ea1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao nh\u1edd ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh trung t\u00e2m ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c1.<\/p>\n
5. c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/p>\n
ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7: Vi\u1ec7c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc duy tr\u00ec m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ed1t gi\u00fap t\u0103ng th\u00e0nh t\u00edch ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 chi\u1ebfm h\u1eefu th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n
l\u00fd l\u1ebd t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u2013 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ee9 c\u00f4ng: c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0 s\u00e2n bay Long Th\u00e0nh, cao t\u1ed1c B\u1eafc Nam l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y tr\u1ee3 gi\u00fap ng\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, VLXD, v\u00e0 logistics.<\/p>\n
T\u00e2m l\u00fd nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0: T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng \u201croom ph\u00edm h\u00e0ng\u201d, tin \u0111\u1ed3n, v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng FOMO\/FUD v\u1eabn c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 ph\u1ec7. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1ed1n y\u00ean c\u1ea7u t\u1ec9nh t\u00e1o, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p thay do ch\u1ea1y theo s\u00f3ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n
6. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb nay \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i 2025 v\u00e0 2025<\/p>\n
Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam giai \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i 2025 \u2013 \u0111\u1ea7u 2025 v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00ecnh ch\u1ecdn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, mang c\u00e1c l\u00fd b\u1edfi v\u00ec sau:<\/p>\n
Kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh GDP d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1t 6\u20136.5% n\u0103m 2025.<\/p>\n
L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, gi\u00fap duy tr\u00ec m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00fa v\u1ecb.<\/p>\n
b\u00ed quy\u1ebft h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, nh\u01b0 n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, s\u1eeda Lu\u1eadt Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng minh b\u1ea1ch th\u00f4ng tin.<\/p>\n
C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng MSCI v\u00e0 FTSE ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn v\u1eadt ph\u1ea9m ti\u1ec1n ngo\u1ea1i quay l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n
D\u00f9 th\u1ebf, kh\u00f4ng may t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 chi\u1ebfn tranh, suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, hay c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u1eeb Fed v\u1eabn th\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i s\u00e1t sao.<\/p>\n